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Bitcoin’s (CRYPTO: BTC) fall from grace has sparked debate about whether the decline was driven by long-term holder (LTH) distribution or a wave of short-term panic selling.
What Happened: According to CryptoQuant, the decline was overwhelmingly driven by short-term holder (STH) capitulation, not long-term investor selling.
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STHs repeatedly selling at a loss, with coins under three months old dominating spent volume during the steepest drops.
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Forced deleveraging and liquidations as these newer holders exited aggressively.
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LTH selling did rise since September, but the behaviour aligned with normal mid-cycle profit-taking, not the heavy distribution typical of major market tops.
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Realized Cap continued climbing, showing new inflows, just not enough to absorb the surge of STH selling plus steady LTH distribution.
Overall, the move points to a bull-market correction, not a cycle-ending reversal.
Why It Matters: CryptoQuant highlighted a massive retail flush-out on Nov. 14, when short-term holders owning under 1 million BTC collectively panic-sold 148,241 BTC at an average price of $96,853, well below their $102,000–$107,000 cost basis.
This wasn’t profit-taking.
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It was a large-scale loss event triggered when Bitcoin broke below the psychological $100,000 level, turning perceived support into a trap door.
Many late-cycle buyers, facing their first meaningful drawdown, chose to capitulate rather than stomach deeper volatility.
Historically, such STH capitulation marks the transfer of coins from weak hands to stronger ones, often forming the base structure for the next major leg higher.
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