Key Takeaways
- Veteran trader Peter Brandt warns Bitcoin could fall 33%–37% toward $58,000–$62,000.
- Bearish chart patterns, including a descending channel and failed breakouts, point to downside risk.
- Macro uncertainty and weakening sentiment could accelerate a correction if key resistance holds.
Bitcoin’s (BTC) recent slide has reignited fears of a deeper correction, and one of the market’s most respected chart watchers is sounding the alarm.
Peter Brandt, a veteran futures trader with more than four decades of experience, warned that Bitcoin could face another sharp leg lower, potentially falling as much as 37% from current levels.
His outlook comes as Bitcoin slipped below $91,000, extending a pullback that has already erased more than 30% from its October 2025 all-time high above $126,000.
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Bitcoin Slips Below $91,000 as Brandt Flags Deeper Downside
Brandt said Bitcoin could ultimately revisit the $58,000 to $62,000 range if current technical pressures persist.
While acknowledging the uncertainty inherent in market forecasting, he made clear that the downside risk is real if buyers fail to regain control.
“$58,000 to $62,000 is where I think it is going BTC,” Brandt wrote . “If it does not go there, I will NOT be ashamed. I am wrong 50% of the time.”
That range implies a decline of roughly 33% to 37% from current prices, a magnitude Brandt argues would be consistent with historical corrections during prior Bitcoin bull cycles.
Bitcoin has struggled to sustain momentum since late 2025.
Despite a brief rebound earlier this month that pushed prices toward $97,000, BTC has largely remained capped below $95,000, suggesting waning buying pressure amid a volatile macro backdrop.
Bearish Patterns Dominate the Chart
Brandt’s warning centers on Bitcoin’s technical structure.
Since late 2025, BTC has traded within a descending channel, repeatedly failing to break above its upper boundary near $102,000.
Each rally attempt has stalled below that level, reinforcing the bearish setup.
The lower edge of the channel currently points toward support in the mid-$80,000 range.
Brandt cautions that a decisive break below that area could accelerate losses, opening the door to much deeper declines toward his $58,000–$62,000 target.
He also points to broader cycle dynamics.
According to Brandt, Bitcoin’s long-term advances have shown signs of “exponential decay,” with each successive bull run producing smaller percentage gains followed by sharp corrections.
He argues the current cycle has already violated its parabolic trend, a technical failure that historically precedes steep drawdowns.
A correction of this size would not be unprecedented.
During the 2015–2017 bull market, Bitcoin experienced multiple pullbacks averaging around 35%–37% before resuming its broader uptrend.
Not Everyone Sees a Crash Ahead
Brandt’s outlook is far from universally accepted.
Several prominent market participants continue to argue that Bitcoin’s structure has fundamentally changed, driven by institutional adoption, spot ETF demand, and broader integration into traditional finance.
Analysts such as Tom Lee and Cathie Wood have suggested that the classic four-year cycle may be breaking down, with longer expansions and shallower corrections becoming more common.
From that perspective, holding above key support levels and reclaiming resistance near $102,000 could invalidate the bearish patterns Brandt highlights.
Even Brandt himself frames his call as a risk scenario rather than a certainty. By his own admission, his forecasts are wrong as often as they are right.
For now, Bitcoin sits at a crossroads.
If sellers maintain control and macro pressures intensify, Brandt’s downside targets may come into play.
But a decisive shift in sentiment or a technical breakout could just as quickly rewrite the narrative.
