XRP or Solana (SOL): Which Altcoin Is Likely to Recover First After the Crypto Bear Market?

Key Takeaways

• Solana shows early signs of responsiveness and absorption, yet remains technically bearish.
• XRP’s price is stabilizing rather than rebounding, with leverage flushed for the time being.
• Overall, neither asset has likely seen a definitive bear-market bottom, leaving further downside.

The crypto market is deep in a high-stakes capitulation phase, and the damage is now obvious across even the most liquid large caps.

In the aftermath of the recent bloodbath and the ensuing deleveraging wave, both Solana (SOL) and XRP.

Notably, the altcoins are at steep discounts, down roughly 43% and 45% from their early-2026 highs.

On the surface, they look similarly battered. Under that, though, their recovery paths look very different.

In this analysis, CCN examines the current position of XRP and Solana’s price. Here, we also evaluate if they can recover after this brutal decline.

Solana Price Crashes

Currently, SOL’s price has slipped below the crucial $100 mark. After losing the important support for the first time in nine months, SOL found buyers just below $96.

However, that kind of response doesn’t confirm a bottom. But it does signal responsiveness, exactly what you expect from an asset that tends to lead both on the way up and on the way out of fear.

More interesting is the divergence forming beneath the price.

While SOL was printing lower lows, Chaikin Money Flow quietly moved higher, hinting that larger players were absorbing supply rather than joining the panic.

XRP vs. SOL: Where They Currently Stand

The real test for Solana is higher than XRP’s. As long as it remains below the $100 zone, any bounce risks being treated as a trade rather than a trend.

But historically, once SOL stabilizes and flips a key level, it tends to move fast. But in this case, it does not seem that Solana’s price will experience a key breakout.

SOL Price Analysis

Solana’s daily chart shows a head-and-shoulders topping structure.

This structure has played out over the past several months. The left shoulder formed during the mid-2025 advance, followed by a strong push into the head near the $250 region, where the price was rejected.

Furthermore, the right shoulder then developed below the head, capped around the 0.5–0.618 Fibonacci zone ($160–$180), signaling a weakening bullish setup.

The neckline, which aligned closely with the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement near $112, acted as a critical support level throughout late 2025. Once Solana broke below this zone, selling pressure accelerated.

Momentum indicators reinforce this bearish structure. At the time of writing, Solana’s price is trading well below the Bollinger Band midline, while the lower band is expanding, suggesting elevated volatility to the downside.

The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) remains negative, indicating sustained capital outflows. This tells us the decline is being driven by real selling pressure.

From a broader perspective, the current bounce off the $80 area looks corrective rather than impulsive.

For Solana to invalidate this bearish setup, it would need to reclaim the broken neckline around $115 and hold above it with strong volume.

Until that happens, rallies are more likely to be sold into, with the market still digesting excess leverage and prior speculative positioning.

XRP in Bearish Zone

XRP, by contrast, looks less explosive and more methodical—and right now, more stuck. The price is hovering near $1.50, a 14-month low, and the chart structure remains unresolved.

Instead of a sharp rebound, XRP has been chopping sideways, suggesting stabilization rather than accumulation.

A bearish pennant on the lower timeframes keeps pressure on the downside, and unless the market can reclaim the $1.58 area, there’s still risk of a final wash toward the $1.20

What’s different about XRP is its positioning.

Futures open interest has dropped to around $831.88 billion, showing that leveraged longs have already been flushed.

This reduces the risk of sudden liquidation cascades. However, it also removes the fuel that powers fast upside-down squeezes.

Without leverage and without urgency, its recovery is more likely to be slow and institutionally driven rather than sharp and reflexive.

XRP Price Analysis

XRP’s daily chart continues to reflect a well-established descending channel that has guided price action since the mid-2025 peak.

Each rally has been capped by the upper trendline. However, successive lower lows have formed along the lower boundary, confirming a broader bearish structure.

From a Fibonacci perspective, XRP’s price, compared to Solana, remains below several critical retracement levels that previously acted as support.

Furthermore, the 0.236 level around $1.75 has already been lost. As it stands, the price is struggling to reclaim it despite the intraday surge.

Above that, the 0.382 ($2.11) and 0.5 ($2.40) levels align closely with channel resistance, creating a heavy confluence zone where sellers are likely to reassert control unless momentum expands materially.

The Ichimoku Cloud adds further caution. The price is still trading below the downward-sloping cloud.

While short-term lines (Tenkan/Kijun) may attempt to curl upward after the bounce, the broader cloud overhead resistance suggests that upside moves are more likely to be corrective pullbacks.

In addition, the RSI remains weak, hovering in the 30s even after the rebound, suggesting XRP’s price is still in bearish territory.

The recent bullish divergence helped trigger the bounce. However, the RSI’s failure to reclaim the 50 level suggests momentum has not yet flipped in favor of buyers.

Historically, strong trend reversals require the RSI to transition from oversold to a sustained neutral-to-bullish range.

In summary, XRP’s current price action appears to be a relief rally within a dominant downtrend.

For a genuine trend shift, the price would need to break and hold above the descending channel, reclaim the 0.382 Fibonacci zone, and flip the Ichimoku cloud into support.

The Verdict

Both assets are casualties of the same macro shock, but their responses reflect their underlying characteristics.

• Solana attempts to bounce first and reassess later.

• XRP grinds sideways, waiting for clarity and confirmation.

During capitulation phases, these differences matter. One tends to move early and violently; the other moves later, but more deliberately.

For now, neither XRP nor Solana shows convincing evidence of a confirmed bear-market bottom. As conditions stand, further downside remains a credible risk before any sustained recovery can take hold.

Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.