Explore our full XRP forecast here for key breakout zones and timing insights.
Bitcoin Dips as Satoshi Era Wallets Sell Out
While XRP remains under the SEC’s influence, whale activity pressured bitcoin (BTC) on the Fourth of July holidays. Crypto exchange and blockchain analytics platform Arkham identified unusual BTC activity, stating:
“A single entity moved $8.6 BILLION of BTC from 8 addresses in the past day. All of the Bitcoin was moved into the original wallets on either 2nd April or 4th May 2011 and has been held for over 14 years. Currently, the Bitcoin is sitting in 8 new addresses and has not been moved subsequently.”
The move to new addresses raised concerns about a potential oversupply on exchanges, impacting BTC demand at $110k levels.
Founder of Alpha Lions Academy and crypto enthusiast Edo Farina remarked:
“Markets are already in panic mode because 8 dormant Satoshi-Era BTC Wallets reactivated after 14 years, moving a total of $8.6 BILLION in BTC.”
US BTC-Spot ETF Flows Bolster BTC’s Supply-Demand Balance
The whale activity overshadowed a fourth consecutive week of net inflows into the US BTC-spot ETF market. According to Farside Investors, weekly net inflows totaled $769.5 million. Key flows included:
- BlackRock’s (BLK) iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) saw weekly net inflows of $336.8 million.
- Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) had net inflows of $248.4 million.
- ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) reported net inflows of $160 million.
- Meanwhile, Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) saw weekly net outflows of $84.9 million.
ETF Store President Nate Geraci remarked on IBIT’s dominance in the US BTC-spot ETF market, stating:
“The nearly $75bil iShares Bitcoin ETF has only one month of outflows since Jan 2024 launch… Now generates more fee revenue for BlackRock than its largest ETF, the iShares S&P 500 ETF. Simple a machine.”
Since launch, IBIT has drawn $52.646 billion in net inflows, countering GBTC’s $23.333 billion of net outflows, leaving total net inflows of $49.622 billion. FBTC is a distant second to IBIT, with net inflows of $12.218 billion, underscoring IBIT’s impressive 18-month run.
BTC Price Outlook: Trade Developments and Legislation in Focus
BTC fell 1.42% on July 4, reversing Thursday’s 0.74% gain to close at $108,097.
The near-term price trajectory depends on several key developments, including upcoming US economic data, Fed monetary policy signals, legislative developments, tariff-related news, and ETF flow trends.
Potential scenarios:
- Bearish Scenario: Escalation in trade war, legislation setbacks, hawkish Fed signals, strong US data, and ETF outflows. A combination of these may push BTC toward the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), potentially exposing $100,000.
- Bullish Scenario: Easing trade tensions, bipartisan support for crypto bills, dovish Fed cues, softer US data, and ETF inflows. Under these scenarios, BTC could climb to its all-time high of $111,917.
