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Bitcoin hit an all-time high of nearly $125,000 last month, but here’s the twist nobody saw coming: September—historically the digital asset’s weakest month—might actually be when it finally reclaims dominance from Ethereum’s summer rally.
While crypto traders brace for Bitcoin’s traditional September slump, a growing chorus of analysts believes this year’s dynamics could flip the script entirely. After watching Ethereum surge 74% over the past two months while Bitcoin managed barely 1%, the stage is set for an unexpected reversal that could catch the market off guard.
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August delivered a reality check for Bitcoin maximalists. While Bitcoin fell 7%, Ethereum soared 17%, continuing a momentum that has seen the second-largest cryptocurrency dramatically outpace its rival. Bitcoin’s dominance—a measure of its relative market share—has declined more than 5% in the past month alone, according to CNBC.
This performance gap represents one of Bitcoin’s most challenging periods relative to Ethereum in recent memory. The ETH-BTC ratio, which measures Ether’s performance against Bitcoin, has reached levels that have many traders questioning whether Bitcoin’s reign as the undisputed crypto king is under threat.
September has been Bitcoin’s kryptonite since 2013, posting an average decline of 3.7% and only finishing positive twice in over a decade. But Matthew Sigel, VanEck’s head of digital assets research, sees this historical weakness as a potential catalyst for Bitcoin’s comeback.
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“In a market with many new tradeable assets, if retail investor appetite declines, those stocks will likely suffer,” Sigel told CNBC. “In such a scenario, Bitcoin itself might end up being an outperformer in the space.”
The logic is counterintuitive but compelling. As newer crypto projects and meme coins lose momentum during September’s traditional downturn, institutional money and serious investors typically flee to Bitcoin as the sector’s most established store of value.
“Bitcoin should chop around at the beginning of September, which might lead to local highs for ETH-BTC,” said Satraj Bambra, CEO of Rails.
