XRP-Spot ETF Market Avoids Investor Exodus
While fading Fed rate cut bets weighed on retail investor sentiment, US XRP-spot ETF market flow trends suggested resilient institutional investor demand.
The US XRP-spot ETF market saw zero net flows on February 12, crucially avoiding net outflows for an eighth consecutive session. In contrast, the US BTC-spot ETF market had net outflows of $276.3 million.
Importantly, the US XRP-spot ETF market has outperformed the US BTC-spot ETF market since trading began in November. While XRP-spot ETF issuers reported net inflows of $1.23 billion, US BTC-spot ETF issuers saw $4.6 billion in net outflows over the same period.
Given BTC’s status as the crypto market barometer, the heavy outflows have weighed on buying interest in digital assets. While the BTC-spot ETF market is significantly larger than the XRP-spot ETF market, flow trends reflect institutional investor sentiment.
Flow data for Thursday, February 12, will be out later today.
XRP Price Forecast: Short-, Medium-, and Long-Term Targets
XRP has tumbled 17% in February, reaffirming the negative short-term outlook (1-4 weeks), with a target price of $1.0.
Nevertheless, resilient buying interest in spot ETFs, expectations that the Senate will pass the Market Structure Bill, and increased XRP utility reinforce the bullish medium- to long-term price projections:
- Medium-term (4-8 weeks): $2.5.
- Longer-term (8-12 weeks): $3.0.
Key Downside Risks to the Bullish Medium-Term Outlook
Several factors could unravel the constructive medium-term bias. These include:
- A hawkish Bank of Japan, with a higher neutral interest rate (potentially 1.5%-2.5%). Aggressive BoJ rate hikes could narrow US-Japan rate differentials in favor of the yen. Narrowing rate differentials may trigger a yen carry trade unwind, as seen in mid-2024, drying up liquidity. A yen carry trade unwind would validate the bearish trend reversal.
- Waning expectations of an H1 2026 Fed rate cut.
- Delays and/or partisan opposition to the Market Structure Bill.
- Extended periods of XRP-spot ETF net outflows.
These events would weigh on XRP, sending the token toward $1.0, reinforcing the bearish short-term outlook.
Technical Analysis: Levels to Watch
XRP fell 0.52% on February 12, following the previous day’s 2.14% loss to close at $1.3627. The token tracked the broader crypto market cap, which declined by 0.61%.
The three-day losing streak left XRP well below its 50-day and 200-day EMAs, indicating bearish momentum. However, several favorable fundamentals continue to offset bearish technicals, supporting a bullish medium-term outlook.
Key technical levels to watch include:
- Support levels: $1.0 and then $0.7773.
- 50-day EMA resistance: $1.7618.
- 200-day EMA resistance: $2.1630.
- Resistance levels: $1.50, $2.0, $2.5, and $3.0.
On the daily chart, a break above $1.50 would enable the bulls to target the 50-day EMA. A sustained move through the 50-day EMA would indicate a near-term bullish trend reversal. A bullish trend reversal would bring the 200-day EMA into play.
A sustained breakout above the EMAs would affirm a bullish trend reversal.
