- The cryptoasset market is said to be sustaining an “extreme fear” phase and a wait-and-see stance, amid downside pressure centered on altcoins.
- Some sectors—including fan tokens, AI-related coins, and real-world asset (RWA) tokens—as well as Ontology, Centrifuge and Bittensor, were said to have shown relatively resilient gains.
- Expectations for opening the U.S. 401(k) market, a stablecoin regulatory framework, and continued net inflows into Bitcoin investment products were cited as medium- to long-term demand drivers.
Forecast Trend Report by Period
As the cryptoasset (cryptocurrency) market searches for direction without clear signs of overheating, downside pressure—centered on altcoins—continues.
The Alternative Crypto Fear & Greed Index, a 30-day gauge of market sentiment, came in at 8, remaining in the “extreme fear” zone. While risk appetite has weakened in the near term, the market appears to be maintaining a wait-and-see stance rather than showing signs of outright capitulation.
Last week (23–29), the market broadly moved sideways with a slight decline. Bitcoin and Ethereum fell by roughly 1% and 2%, respectively, leading the broader weakness, while altcoins also underwent a synchronized pullback.
By sector, selective strength emerged. Fan tokens rose about 11% on the week, posting the highest return, while artificial intelligence (AI)-related coins and real-world asset (RWA) tokens gained around 8% and 2%, respectively, showing relatively resilient price action. On an individual basis, Ontology, Centrifuge and Bittensor recorded notable gains.
Market participants are focusing on the fact that expectations for structural inflows are holding up even as volatility increases. As integration into regulated financial infrastructure accelerates, some interpret current price levels as a stage ahead of a medium- to long-term upcycle.
Policy factors are also seen as supporting the downside. President Donald Trump recently said, “Bitcoin is very strong, and the United States will become a Bitcoin superpower,” underscoring the importance of regulatory clarity. Establishing a regulatory framework for dollar-based stablecoins is also viewed as a foundation for institutional capital inflows.
In particular, expectations for opening up the U.S. 401(k) retirement market—estimated at $12 trillion—are emerging as a medium- to long-term demand driver. The relevant guidelines are said to have been designed to reduce liability burdens if pension managers include cryptoassets through appropriate procedures. Some in the market suggest that even a 1% allocation could generate roughly $120 billion in new demand.
In the macro backdrop, gold and Bitcoin have also been seen moving in opposite directions. While gold and silver prices have fallen by about 12% and 22%, respectively, Bitcoin has maintained a modest rise in dollar terms. In terms of flows, outflows from gold ETFs continued, while net inflows into Bitcoin investment products persisted.
Meanwhile, some observers say that despite external factors such as geopolitical tensions, supply-demand dynamics led by long-term holders are showing signs of gradual improvement.
