- Analysts said Bitcoin dominance has recently lost momentum, while bearish signals on the RSI and MACD point to a possible shift in market structure.
- They said the Altcoin Volume Increasing Trend indicator has been activated, and some altcoins including Solana (SOL) and Sui (SUI) have posted double-digit gains.
- They said the market is not yet overheated because MVRV, the profit/loss margin, and long-term holder selling pressure remain below levels seen at previous cycle peaks, making whether the market is entering another early altseason phase the key point to watch.
Forecast Trend Report by Period
Bitcoin’s share of the crypto market is losing momentum, fueling speculation that capital may be starting to rotate into altcoins.
A CryptoQuant Quicktake note published May 10 said Bitcoin dominance is flashing bearish signals on both the relative strength index, or RSI, and the moving average convergence divergence indicator, known as MACD. XWIN Japan wrote that the move could point to a shift in market structure rather than a simple technical correction.
Bitcoin led the digital-asset market in the first half of this year. Inflows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, broader institutional participation and macroeconomic uncertainty concentrated capital in the token, lifting its market share to about 60%. Most altcoins, by contrast, underperformed.
CryptoQuant analyst CryptoOnchain said more recent data shows signs of a change. The “Altcoin Volume Increasing Trend” indicator has been activated, a signal that appears when the 30-day moving average of altcoin trading volume on centralized exchanges rises above the 365-day average.
A similar pattern during the 2021 bull market was followed by gains in Ether and other major altcoins.
Recent trading has also shown money spreading beyond Bitcoin, with some altcoins including Solana and Sui posting double-digit gains.
On-chain indicators suggest the market has not yet reached overheated levels. XWIN Japan said the profit/loss margin and market value-to-realized value ratio, or MVRV, remain below levels seen at previous cycle peaks, while selling pressure from long-term holders is still limited.
XWIN Japan said declines in Bitcoin dominance marked major turning points for altcoin bull markets in 2017 and 2021. The key question now is whether the market is entering the early stage of another altseason.
