Space Review | The October Test for Altcoin ETFs: Is it the Start of an Institutional Bull Market or a Regulatory “Smoke Screen”?

October marks another critical juncture for the crypto market. Following the approval of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, a wave of regulation dubbed the “Altcoin ETF Test” is quietly emerging. Several asset management institutions have submitted ETF applications to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) covering various mainstream public chain assets, with new public chains like Solana prominently featured. Meanwhile, the well-established public chain representative TRON has also appeared on this list of applications, sparking endless speculation in the market about the “compliance pathway for altcoins.”

This seemingly sudden wave of applications actually reflects a deep turning point in the development of the crypto industry. Supporters view it as a key milestone for institutional capital entering the market after Bitcoin and Ethereum, while skeptics warn that this could be a “compliance smoke bomb” released by regulators, hiding more complex liquidity controls and asset classification standards behind a seemingly open stance. Altcoins, especially infrastructure like TRON that has undergone multiple cycles of testing, are facing the most significant institutional test in their development history: can they truly open the gates of traditional finance through ETFs?

As the market narrative gradually shifts from “speculation-driven” to “institution-driven,” this October exam may determine the underlying logic of the next bull market. Will it usher in a true tsunami of institutional capital, or will it fall into a more complex regulatory game? This issue of Space invites several industry veteran analysts to deeply dissect the compliance maze and capital trends behind the ETF applications.

The Altcoin ETF Application Wave: Regulatory Easing or Signal Testing?

As October begins, the crypto market has ignited a wave of “Altcoin ETF Testing,” a regulatory game seen as a key node for the compliance of crypto assets, sparking intense clashes of perspectives within the industry. In this crypto-themed Space discussion, three guests provided in-depth analysis of the essence of this application wave from three dimensions: regulatory intent, policy signals, and market games.

Guest Ning Fan was the first to present a clear viewpoint: “This feels more like regulators testing the boundaries rather than a full-scale easing.” He observed that since the approval of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, regulatory agencies have been paving the way for subsequent varieties through clearer approval standards, but this process is essentially “giving the market a window of expectation.” When mentioning multiple project applications, including TRON, he emphasized that “the market plays on expectations,” and regulators are screening quality assets by setting risk control thresholds. The core logic is “institutional first, then open market participation.”

Echoing this, Hei Yan Quan captured positive signals from policy details. He pointed out the important adjustment by the SEC in September: “The approval time has been shortened from 240 days to 75 days, significantly lowering the market entry threshold.” In his view, the approval of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs has set a precedent for diversified crypto investment products, and the inclusion of public chain assets like TRON in the application list is a concrete manifestation of “regulators releasing goodwill and tentatively accepting compliant assets.”

Davin.eth further explained the complex interaction between regulators and the market, stating, “The SEC has opened a locked door; sunlight is coming in, but we still can’t enter.” He acknowledged the surge in applications brought about by the new review standards while reminding everyone to pay attention to the SEC’s strict scrutiny of details such as custody and liquidity. In his view, this dual attitude of being both open and cautious creates a unique situation of “short-term speculation coexisting with long-term benefits.”

Although the three guests had different perspectives, they collectively outlined the complex landscape of the current regulatory environment: on one hand, the policy window is indeed loosening, providing unprecedented compliance opportunities for mature public chains like TRON; on the other hand, all openness comes with strict preconditions. This game surrounding the altcoin ETF has already become an important barometer for observing the integration process of the crypto world and traditional finance.

The Altcoin ETF Opens a New Track: Who Will First Capture the “Institutional Dividend”?

As the gates for altcoin ETFs are expected to open, the market’s core question arises: where will the massive influx of institutional capital first flow? In this deep discussion surrounding “institutional beneficiaries,” the consensus among several guests pointed towards top public chains with high market capitalization, strong liquidity, and robust ecosystems, with TRON being highlighted as an infrastructure that combines payment settlement and a large ecosystem, its value logic repeatedly validated.

Guest @laodi888 pointed out that this ETF wave is by no means an ordinary bull market but a brutal “institutional selection.” She succinctly summarized, “If Bitcoin ETFs are institutionalized value storage, then altcoin ETFs are the institutionalized segmentation of innovative assets.”

In her view, those that can first cross this compliance threshold will undoubtedly be projects that “possess sufficient transparency, liquidity, and governance and ecosystem structures that align with traditional investment logic.” She specifically used TRON as an example, pointing out that its core competitiveness lies in its practical application in payment and cross-border settlement scenarios, creating a finely tuned “micro-economy.”

Within this economy, DeFi protocol JUST, core DEX SUN.io, and fair launch platform SunPump together form a closed loop of value creation and circulation. More critically, JustLend DAO’s support for TRX staking allows users not only to earn stable staking rewards but also to deeply participate in the TRON ecosystem while holding core assets, further complemented by underlying infrastructures like BitTorrent and WINkLink. This self-sustaining, organically circulating ecosystem provides solid fundamental support for TRX assets, which is precisely the structural value that institutional capital pursuing sustainability values most.

Ning Fan sharply pointed out by reviewing the SEC’s approval list: “The market has already set our expectations.” In his view, capital has already begun to position itself in these solidly grounded, frequently mentioned “first-tier” projects. Notably, as early as April this year, Canary Capital Group submitted an S-1 filing to the SEC to apply for a TRX ETF with staking features, signaling that market expectations are ahead of the curve and indicating that it could become the next compliant entry point for institutional capital. Further reinforcing this narrative, Tron Inc. officially listed on NASDAQ in July this year, adopting a “MicroStrategy”-like model to treat TRX as a strategic reserve asset. This milestone not only brought unprecedented compliance endorsement to TRX but also positioned it uniquely in the grand narrative of altcoin ETFs.

In summary, if the altcoin ETF successfully lands, the path to benefits is already clear: the top public chains that already possess “quasi-institutional asset” qualities will be the first to benefit. With its practical applications in cross-border payments, vast user base, and a thriving, self-consistent ecosystem composed of JUST, APENFT, BitTorrent, WINkLink, and SunPump, TRON undoubtedly stands at the forefront of this “institutional dividend,” becoming an essential target for institutional capital exploring deeper values in the crypto world.