XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) and Solana (CRYPTO: SOL) are trading in positive territory in May, posting gains that have traders watching closely for their next big moves. XRP is trading above $1.40 after gaining roughly 3% over the last day, while Solana also posted roughly 7% gains over the last day to trade above $93.
After a weak first quarter, XRP and Solana are back in the green again. But which of the two cryptos is the smarter buy this summer? We looked into how both coins have performed in Q2 and Q3, and most importantly, which one has the best upside potential this summer.
XRP vs Solana Performance in Q2 and Q3 in the Last 5 Years
XRP’s Q2 performance over the last five years has been somewhat bearish. Per Cryptorank, XRP gained 21.2% in 2021 but dropped by 59.4%, 11.9%, and 25% across 2022, 2023, and 2024—driven by the Terra/Luna collapse, the SEC lawsuit, and a significant drop in on-chain activity. The 7% gain in 2025 wasn’t enough to offset those losses, leaving holders since 2021 with an average -13.6% Q2 return across the five years.
Solana’s performance in Q2 follows a familiar pattern, with the coin recording more gains than XRP, but also suffering steeper declines. Per Cryptorank, Solana gained 82.5% in 2021 but fell 72.7%, 10.4%, and 27.9% across 2022, 2023, and 2024. A 24% gain in Q2 2025 brought its five-year average to about -1%, which still makes Solana the better Q2 performer of the two over the last five years.
Q3 shows both coins enjoy a sustained rally after battling bearish pressure in the second quarter. XRP closed every Q3 in the green over the last five years, with compounded gains of roughly 249% across that stretch. Solana also performed well, with positive returns in four out of five years. The biggest move was a roughly 300% gain in 2021, with smaller gains of 13%, 3.98%, and 34.9% across 2023, 2024, and 2025. The only exception was 2022, when the Solana price posted a modest 1.20% loss.
Despite the bearish Q2 periods over the last five years, Solana recovered with sharper upsides as sentiment improved, and delivered more returns than XRP. Historical performance shows SOL has a better setup for stronger summer gains over XRP.
What Would Need to Happen for XRP or Solana to Be the Better Summer Buy?
While history shows that Solana has performed better entering the summer, there are some factors that could boost SOL’s performance or improve XRP’s odds of being a better buy.
Solana
For Solana to remain the safer bet, two near-term catalysts need to break in its favor. The first is the Alpenglow consensus upgrade—which aims to make Solana faster by improving transaction time from about 12 seconds to a record 150 milliseconds. The network aims to replace its older Proof of History system with a streamlined consensus mechanism. If this rolls out later this year, Solana would have a stronger tech story—which would boost its Q3 performance.
The second catalyst is Solana’s growing institutional interest. JPMorgan and Anchorage just announced a partnership to develop tokenized stablecoin reserves on Solana, signaling that big banks are starting to use the network for serious settlement. This matters because the stablecoin market has crossed $300 billion, and Solana alone has recorded about $2 trillion in stablecoin transfers this quarter.
If Solana’s stablecoin transfer volume keeps rising, SOL could push above $100—roughly 7% upside from current levels. A move past $100 before the end of Q2 could open the path to $150-$200, making Solana the safer bet for the summer.
XRP
For XRP to be the better summer buy, the biggest catalyst is the CLARITY Act—which would formally recognize crypto as part of the U.S. financial system. The Senate Banking Committee will hold a markup vote on May 14. If the CLARITY Act gets a Senate vote shortly after, it could be a big deal for XRP performance in Q2 and Q3, and would strengthen expectations that the bill reaches Trump’s desk before the July 4 White House deadline.
Standard Chartered predicts that clear regulations would unlock more XRP ETF inflows, with around $4 to $8 billion projected to flow into the network. That level of clarity and demand could push XRP back above $3, which is a 111% upside from today’s price.
What to Watch Before Picking the Better Buy Between XRP and Solana
Before picking between XRP and Solana, watch how the near-term catalysts play out and how each coin reacts. How they perform through May and June will tell you a lot about their potential entering Q3.
Another factor worth watching is how the U.S. and Iran conflict develops. Since February 28, when the conflict started, peace rumors have triggered short-term bursts, while news of attacks worsened market sentiment. Any escalation in the Middle East could pull liquidity from crypto assets—triggering bearish pressure like Q1, when XRP and Solana lost 27% and 33%, respectively.
If catalysts align positively this summer, XRP could outperform on bigger near-term upside from the CLARITY Act. But if they don’t, history suggests Solana is the safer and more rewarding bet for the summer.
