Key Points
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Ethereum has a current market cap of $200 billion, while Solana has a market cap of $40 billion.
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For Solana to pass Ethereum, it will need to step up its rate of growth in decentralized finance (DeFi).
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Given the size of the current gap in market cap, Solana would likely need to double in value each year.
For more than a decade, Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) has reigned supreme as the top altcoin. With a hefty market cap of $200 billion, it is the second-most-valuable cryptocurrency in the world, trailing only Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC).
But that could be about to change. Ethereum has plenty of blockchain rivals, and the one that I’m watching carefully right now is Solana (CRYPTO: SOL). In fact, I’m predicting that Solana will replace Ethereum as the No. 1 altcoin by 2030. Here’s why.
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Solana’s growth trajectory
First and most importantly, Solana is growing faster than Ethereum right now. That’s due in large part to Solana’s superior speeds and cheaper costs. Users and developers have a choice of which blockchain network to use, and right now, they are migrating to Solana for its superior performance.
In fact, Solana has been chipping away at Ethereum’s historical dominance in decentralized finance (DeFi) for nearly three years now. The first sign of this came in mid-2024, when monthly trading volume on Solana’s decentralized exchanges began to eclipse that on Ethereum’s.
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This has not gone unnoticed by high-profile investors. Cathie Wood of Ark Invest, for example, pointed to Solana’s disruptive potential in November 2023. As she noted, faster speeds and lower costs matter to users and developers and could be the key to Solana disrupting Ethereum.
Right now, Solana is in the midst of a strategic pivot, moving away from meme coins to stablecoins and tokenized assets. The focus is shifting from consumer-facing segments of decentralized finance to those focused on financial institutions and institutional investors.
And it’s here that Solana could pose the biggest threat to Ethereum. After all, stablecoins and asset tokenization are two of the fastest-growing segments of DeFi. They are the key to unlocking future growth opportunities, helping to ensure that Solana can grow faster than Ethereum for the foreseeable future.
A potential scenario for Solana
So, what would it realistically take for Solana to topple Ethereum as the top altcoin? After all, Ethereum currently has a market cap of $200 billion, while Solana has a market cap of $40 billion. So Ethereum is roughly 5x bigger than Solana. That’s a big gap to close.
But here’s one scenario to consider: What if Solana doubles in value each year, while Ethereum plods along at a steady 20% growth rate? By the middle of 2029, Solana would be worth $320 billion, while Ethereum would be worth $346 billion. That sets up 2030 as the year that Solana could finally pass Ethereum.
Maybe it’s asking too much for Solana to double in value each year. But Solana has had some truly spectacular years. In 2023, for example, Solana skyrocketed in value by 924%. In 2024, Solana soared in value by 86%.
If all goes well, Solana could pass Ethereum as the top altcoin sometime in 2030. As with all things crypto-related, there are no guarantees. But if there’s one crypto capable of toppling Ethereum, it’s Solana.
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Dominic Basulto has positions in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
