XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) is up 4% to $1.41, outperforming Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana in a single session—the first time in weeks the token has led the market.
The move is being driven by Rakuten Wallet listing XRP yesterday and the SEC’s crypto roundtable happening today, with institutional money moving in behind both catalysts. The only thing standing between XRP and a real breakout now is $1.45, where roughly 60% of current holders bought in—creating a wall of break-even sellers that every rally has failed to push through.
What’s Driving the XRP Price Today?
Most of the rally attempts in XRP this year have come from a single catalyst—an ETF launch, a commodity classification, a Ripple bank partnership—and none of them have stuck. Today is different because two major catalysts are in play at the same time.
The first is Rakuten Wallet, which listed XRP for spot trading and payments on April 15. This is bigger than a normal exchange listing because 44 million Rakuten Pay users can now convert loyalty points into XRP and spend it at over 5 million merchant locations across Japan. Most of them won’t bother, but even a small percentage of that user base converting points into XRP creates buying pressure that no exchange listing has come close to generating.
The second is the SEC roundtable happening today. Commissioners Hester Peirce and Mark Uyeda are leading it, and they’re the same two commissioners driving the SEC’s crypto agenda and publicly backing the CLARITY Act—the bill that would make XRP’s commodity classification permanent federal law. The official agenda says options market structure, but any signal from Peirce or Uyeda about where crypto regulation is heading gets priced into XRP first.
Together, the two catalysts change the picture for XRP. Japan gives XRP organic demand that isn’t tied to speculation, and the SEC gives it the regulatory validation that large institutions have been waiting on. After months of waiting on a real catalyst, XRP finally has two back-to-back, and that’s why the 4% gain is sticking when every other rally this year has faded fast.
Why $1.45 Is the Level That Decides This Breakout
A 4% rally sounds impressive on paper, but XRP holders have seen this exact move at least three times in 2026 and every single one has stalled at the same level: $1.45. A huge pocket of XRP holders bought in between $1.45 and $1.47 earlier this year, and they’ve been underwater ever since. Roughly 1.24 billion tokens sit in those wallets, and every time the price climbs back to their entry, they sell to break even rather than hold for more upside.
So when XRP rallies to $1.45, it’s hitting a wall of sellers looking to break even. Today XRP is at $1.41, steadily making another attempt at the resistance. What’s changed this time is the buying behind the current move. Previous XRP rallies to $1.45 were driven by retail or short-term speculation, and the sellers outnumbered them every time.
The Rakuten integration and the SEC roundtable this time are pulling in different kinds of buyers, and if the demand absorbs enough of the wall, the break is possible. That doesn’t mean it’s probable, because resistances like that usually need multiple attempts to crack. If XRP does break $1.45 and holds above it, the next test is $1.55 and beyond.
Institutional Money Is Backing the XRP Move
Money has been quietly moving into XRP products in recent weeks, and it’s now finally showing in the price. XRP investment products pulled in $119.6 million in net inflows for the week ending April 11—the strongest weekly figure since December 2025, and almost all of it came from Europe. Switzerland alone contributed $157.5 million, which is more than 70% of the global crypto fund flows that week, while US-listed XRP ETFs barely saw any activity.
European institutions have been building XRP positions for weeks through Swiss exchange-traded products because FINMA, Switzerland’s financial regulator, already gives them a clear legal path in, while US institutions are still waiting on the CLARITY Act. The demand and steady buying is why today’s 4% gain is holding.
When U.S. institutions start buying—which is what the CLARITY Act is expected to unlock—a second wave of capital will hit the market on top of what’s already flowing from Europe. So, XRP has far more fuel than the $1.45 wall needs to break, all it needs is the CLARITY Act passing.
Is the XRP Breakout Starting?
This is the closest XRP has come all year to breaking out with real conviction, and the next two weeks will decide whether it sticks. The Senate Banking Committee is targeting a CLARITY Act markup before the end of April. If the markup gets scheduled, XRP will likely break $1.45 on anticipation, even before the vote happens.
However, the CLARITY Act isn’t the only thing in play. The ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran expires on April 22, and the FOMC meets April 28-29. If the ceasefire holds and oil price drops back below $90, the sentiment around XRP and the rest of the crypto market will remain bullish.
Polymarket traders are pricing the CLARITY Act’s passage at around 60%, which means the odds favour it happening—but it’s far from guaranteed. So the 4% move could be just the opening move as XRP could finally break out if the catalysts align.
